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In the Midst of the Middle East

By Louise Hemfrey
Monday 19th October 2009
    Afghanistan’s presidential election process continues to attract controversy in the world news. Allegations of fraud by the opposition , lead by former foreign minister Dr Abdullah Abdullah, have forced a recount of a significant proportion of votes.  After universal condemnation of the disputed Iranian election in the West, this apparent failure of democracy in the key battleground of the war on terror once again raises questions of the West’s legitimacy in the issue which has come to define the first ten years of the new century.

    At the close of poles in August the count confirmed that 54.6% of the vote had been won by the incumbent Hamid Karzai. The combined pressure of opposition leaders and supporters, who took to the streets in protest at the suspected swindle, forced the involvement of the Afgan Electoral Complaints Commission.  The ECC has taken a "scientifically drawn sample" 1 of ballot papers from polling stations located in dubious regions of the country and analysed them for discrepancies.  Originally supported by the UN, they recalled their envoy, Peter Galbraith, in late September, after disagreements over the recount process. This raises questions as to whether a truly democratic government in Afghanistan could be a reality while the country is still wracked with internal disputes.

    The challenges that Afghanistan faces are many.  The principle concern for the government is the continuing civil war with the Taliban, the fundamentalist Islamic organisation who ruled Afghanistan until 2001, who now hold several regions under their control.  President Karzai served the Taliban government as foreign minister before switching sides to fight alongside the American lead invasion in 2001. He was first elected in 2004, and began tentative peace talks with the Taliban. In 2007 it emerged that he had been in contact with his former masters before this initiative began.  Despite losing power eight years ago, the Taliban’s influence still extends to almost every area of Afghan society. Women still face intimidation in public, the elections saw numerous instances of coercion and even the capital city Kabul, the heart of the Afghan and coalition administration, has not been immune from suicide attacks.

    Over the past eight weeks the ECC has investigated an estimated 2,584 claims of misconduct and the results, released this Saturday, the 17 October, will be the tipping point from which a second round of elections may be required.  Despite the widespread support for democratic proceedings in Afghanistan, the concept of further balloting is generally an unwelcome one.  There are various meteorological concerns. The forthcoming winter season which will make some regions in the North of the country inaccessible, coincidentally Dr Abdullah Abdullah’s foremost support comes from these territories.  The prime concern for the ECC however is security. Over thirty people were killed in a combination of attacks on polling stations, bank raids and intercity clashes with the Taliban.  This number is, of course, minute when put into the context of the constant conflict in which the country has been engulfed since the end of the Cold War, yet many have misgivings about the time and labour required to re-host the election.

    The most important issue for the country as a whole however will be the outcome of another election – though this time instead of the forty one prospective candidates there will be two: Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.  The consensus amongst other key world leaders is that the two men should form a coalition government, although Abdullah Abdullah rejected this notion at the outset of his campaign.  Further food for thought is the contested concept of coalition governments in general.  One only needs to reference the current regime in Zimbabwe to identify a host of structural problems awaiting any coalition government in a country with relentless insurgency.  Amongst the current media there is a suspicion that while new elections will be proposed a ‘deal’, of some kind, will be brokered between the two, persuading one of the candidates to pull out.

      Hamid Karzai. Courtesy of “Wordpress.com”

      Abdullah Abdullah. Courtesy of “|radio Free Europe”.